In fantasy hockey, upside comes with risk. Even top producers can regress—especially when their career bests hinge on unsustainable factors like shooting percentage, power-play usage, or role inflation. Here are regression risks for 2025–26 among players confirmed on rosters:
Forwards
Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers)
- 2024–25 Recap: Reinhart posted a career-high goal total thanks to a bump in shooting percentage.
- Why regression is likely: That level of finishing is difficult to sustain. If his shot volume doesn’t rise, goals could slip significantly.
- Fantasy Outlook: Still a strong pick, but don’t overpay expecting another peak year.
Tomas Hertl (Vegas Golden Knights)
- 2024–25 Recap: Saw increased production due in part to strong linemates and more opportunity.
- Why regression is likely: Injuries and changing line combinations can chip away at totals. He’s more likely to settle back into 50–60 point territory.
- Fantasy Outlook: Draft him as a value winger, not a centerpiece.
Matthew Tkachuk (Florida Panthers) Only if he’s back healthy mid-season
- 2024–25 Recap: Tkachuk was in the midst of injury issues before his long-term absence.
- Why regression is likely: Coming off injury and possibly missing early games introduces risk in point totals, especially goal production.
- Fantasy Outlook: If available at discount in drafts, he’s worth a flier—just don’t spend a top pick.
Defensemen
Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh Penguins)
- 2024–25 Recap: He rebounded offensively, especially on the power play.
- Why regression is likely: Age and injury risk are real. Plus, production from defense tends to fluctuate. A minor dip in usage or opportunity could drop his value.
- Fantasy Outlook: Great depth pick, but avoid drafting as a top-tier blue-liner unless you get discount value.
Goaltenders
Juuse Saros (Nashville Predators)
- 2024–25 Recap: Saros delivered solid numbers behind a defense that masked inconsistencies.
- Why regression is likely: His SV% has shown variance historically. If Nashville’s defense falters or he faces heavier shot volume, his win totals and rate stats may drop.
- Fantasy Outlook: Still a strong option, but temper expectations of elite ceiling—budget accordingly.
Final Thought
None of these players are guaranteed to decline, but each carries higher risk given their context. Use them cautiously—or better yet, target upside pieces with room to grow rather than falling for inflated stats from last year.