The 2024-25 NHL season provided bettors with a masterclass in identifying exploitable patterns, particularly when it comes to rebuilding teams and their goaltending situations. While casual fans see tanking as simply losing games, sharp bettors understand that the how matters just as much as the outcome—especially when it comes to totals betting.
The Anatomy of Strategic Mediocrity
Rebuilding teams face a unique challenge: they need to lose enough games to secure premium draft positioning while still developing young players and maintaining some semblance of competitive integrity. The goaltending position becomes the perfect pressure valve for this delicate balance.
Consider the San Jose Sharks’ situation this season. After finishing dead last in 2023-24, they entered 2024-25 with Mackenzie Blackwood and Vitek Vanecek splitting duties. Neither goaltender represents a long-term solution, and the team has shown little urgency in shoring up the position. The result? San Jose games have hit the over in 58% of their contests through late December, with an average total of 6.8 goals per game.
This isn’t accidental. It’s strategic roster construction.
Why Goaltending Is the Tanking Lever
Unlike other positions, goaltending performance can be controlled without obviously undermining competitive effort:
Deniability: A struggling goalie can be attributed to “development,” “inconsistency,” or being “overwhelmed” rather than intentional tanking. Front offices can point to save percentage volatility as a natural part of the position.
Immediate Impact: A .900 save percentage versus a .920 save percentage translates to roughly 0.6 goals per game—the difference between competitive hockey and consistent losses.
Asset Management: Acquiring or developing elite goaltending is expensive. Rebuilding teams can justify running out replacement-level netminders to “see what they have” while allocating resources elsewhere.
Scoring Environment: Modern NHL hockey trends toward higher scoring. Even mediocre offensive teams can capitalize on weak goaltending, creating high-event games perfect for overs betting.
Identifying Profitable Tanking Situations
Not all rebuilding teams are created equal for totals betting. Here’s what to look for:
1. Goalie Carousel Without a Clear Starter
Teams rotating multiple subpar goaltenders signal organizational acceptance of poor netminding. The Chicago Blackhawks’ handling of Petr Mrazek and Arvid Soderblom this season exemplifies this—neither has established himself as a long-term answer, and the team seems content to let them split duties rather than pursue an upgrade.
Betting Angle: Target overs in these games, particularly when they face teams with competent offenses. The lack of stability creates defensive breakdowns and inconsistent positioning.
2. Young Goalies Getting “Development Reps”
When rebuilding teams throw 22-year-old prospects into starter roles, they’re often more concerned with evaluation than winning. The Columbus Blue Jackets’ commitment to Daniil Tarasov exemplifies this approach—giving significant minutes to assess his NHL viability regardless of results.
Betting Angle: Early-season overs are particularly valuable as young goalies adjust to NHL shooting talent and game speed. Watch for regression as the season progresses and they adapt.
3. Defensive System Indifference
Tanking teams often run simplified defensive systems that prioritize player development over results. They allow more shot attempts, higher-danger chances, and transition opportunities.
The Anaheim Ducks under recent coaching staffs have demonstrated this approach—focusing on offensive development for Trevor Zegras and Mason McTavish while allowing opponents quality scoring chances.
Betting Angle: Track shot attempt differentials (Corsi/Fenwick) and high-danger chances against. Teams consistently allowing 30+ shots and double-digit high-danger chances are over machines.
4. Trade Deadline Goalie Moves
The March trade deadline often sees rebuilding teams move competent veteran goaltenders for picks. This creates obvious totals betting opportunities in the season’s final 20+ games.
Last season, the Utah Hockey Club traded Karel Vejmelka, leaving Connor Ingram as the starter. Utah games went over at a 65% clip post-deadline.
Betting Angle: Monitor trade rumors around veteran goalies on rebuilding teams. Position yourself for post-trade overs before the market fully adjusts.
Real-Time Example: 2024-25 San Jose Sharks
Let’s break down how to profit from the Sharks’ situation this season:
Pre-Season Assessment:
- Mackenzie Blackwood (career .905 SV%)
- Vitek Vanecek (career .908 SV%)
- Porous defense losing Karlsson’s transition game
- Young forwards (Eklund, Bordeleau, Celebrini) focused on offensive development
In-Season Results (through December 2024):
- Team save percentage: .884 (30th in NHL)
- Goals against per game: 3.71 (29th in NHL)
- Overs: 23-17 (58%)
- Average game total: 6.8 goals
Profitable Patterns:
- Home games: 62% overs (fans expect offense, team delivers chaos)
- Against playoff teams: 67% overs (skill mismatch creates scoring)
- Back-to-backs: 71% overs (fatigue compounds goaltending weakness)
A systematic approach betting Sharks overs in these situations would have shown significant profit over the season’s first half.
Advanced Metrics to Monitor
Sharp totals bettors should track these goaltending and team defense metrics:
Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx): Measures goalie performance against shot quality. Rebuilding teams consistently show negative GSAx, indicating below-average goaltending relative to chances faced.
High-Danger Save Percentage: Elite goalies save 85%+ of high-danger chances. Tanking team goalies often sit below 80%, creating massive scoring opportunities.
Expected Goals Against per 60 (xGA/60): Tracks defensive system quality. Tanking teams often allow 3.0+ xGA/60, well above league average.
Rebound Control Rate: Weak goalies create second-chance opportunities. Monitor rebound shots for and against—teams allowing high rebound shot totals are over candidates.
Where to Find This Data:
Situational Betting Strategies
The “Revenge Spot” Over
When tanking teams face former players (especially traded goalies), emotions run high and defensive focus wanes. These games frequently produce track meets.
Example: When Jacob Markstrom faced Calgary after being traded to New Jersey, the Devils-Flames game hit the over with 7 total goals despite a 5.5 closing line.
The “National TV” Over
Rebuilding teams on national broadcasts often showcase their young offensive talent, leading to wide-open hockey. NHL Network and TNT games involving tanking teams trend toward overs.
The “Post-Deadline Chaos” Over
The final 15-20 games after tanking teams sell at the deadline create ideal over conditions. Depleted rosters, call-ups from the AHL, and “audition hockey” produce high-scoring affairs.
2023-24 Example: Post-deadline Utah games averaged 7.2 total goals, compared to 6.1 pre-deadline.
The “Division Game” Under Trap
Be cautious with division games involving tanking teams. Familiarity and pride can create tighter checking. Divisional rivalry games involving rebuilding clubs hit unders at roughly 55%, countering the general trend.
Risk Management and Bankroll Discipline
Tanking team totals betting requires discipline:
Unit Sizing: Never exceed 2-3% of bankroll on a single totals bet, even with strong conviction. Variance is real—even terrible goalies occasionally post shutouts.
Line Shopping: Half-goals matter enormously in totals betting. Shop for 6.5 vs 6 or 5.5 vs 6. Use multiple sportsbooks to maximize value.
Avoid Parlays: The temptation to parlay multiple tanking team overs is strong, but correlation isn’t guaranteed. Stick to straight bets or small 2-team parlays maximum.
Track Closing Line Value: Monitor where your bets close relative to your entry. If you’re consistently betting overs at 6 that close at 6.5, you’re beating the market regardless of short-term results.
Season-Long Adaptation: Tanking teams occasionally get hot or make unexpected improvements. Remain flexible and don’t marry your thesis. If a team’s goaltending stabilizes or defensive structure improves, adjust accordingly.
The Ethical Consideration
Some bettors question whether profiting from intentional losing is problematic. Here’s the reality: NHL teams are billion-dollar businesses making calculated roster decisions. The draft lottery system incentivizes poor records. As a bettor, you’re not influencing outcomes—you’re simply reading organizational behavior and adjusting your action accordingly.
Teams tank. Smart bettors profit from recognizing it.
Building Your Watchlist
Create a spreadsheet tracking these factors for potential tanking teams:
- Current goalie save percentage and GSAx
- Team xGA/60 and high-danger chances against
- Over/under record overall and by situation
- Average game total vs. closing lines
- Upcoming schedule (quality of opponents)
- Trade rumors surrounding goaltenders
Update weekly and identify trends. Pattern recognition is profitable.
Conclusion: Information Asymmetry Creates Edges
Most casual bettors see a rebuilding team and assume they’ll lose. Sharp bettors ask how they’ll lose and what that means for totals.
Goaltending represents the most manipulable variable in tanking strategies. Organizations can plausibly claim they’re “developing assets” while running out subpar netminders, creating systemic over value for informed bettors.
The 2024-25 season reinforced these patterns, with rebuilding clubs like San Jose, Chicago, and Anaheim providing consistent totals betting opportunities through weak goaltending and porous defensive structures.
Identify the teams, monitor the metrics, and profit from organizational indifference disguised as development. The rebuilding process might take years—your betting edge doesn’t have to wait.
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